ADDIS ABABA — Ethiopia’s conflict appears to be entering a new phase after reports of drone attacks on military and aviation facilities far from the country’s main battlefronts.

Among the sites reportedly targeted is Harar Meda Air Base in Debre Zeit, also known as Bishoftu, about 40km (25 miles) south-east of the capital, Addis Ababa.

The air base is closely associated with the Ethiopian Air Force and is one of the country’s most strategically important military facilities.

Airports in Bahir Dar, Kombolcha, Semera, Asosa and Dansha have also reportedly been targeted, along with sensitive military sites in Addis Ababa.

The attacks in Addis Ababa have been reported by reputable media outlets, including the BBC, although the full extent of the damage remains unclear.

The attacks represent a significant expansion of the conflict, bringing strategically important military infrastructure within the reach of armed groups employing drones

A widening conflict

Ethiopia has been facing a series of armed conflicts in different parts of the country, despite the end of the two-year war in Tigray in 2022.

Fighting involving Tigrayan forces has recently intensified in the north, while armed groups associated with the Amhara and Oromo communities remain active in other parts of the country.

There have also been reports of activity involving armed groups in Amhara, Afar, Oromo, Benishangul-Gumuz and other regions.

An armed coalition calling itself the Alliance for Survival has claimed or been linked to some of the reported attacks.

The coalition reportedly includes the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, Oromo Liberation Army, Amhara Fano National Movement, Ogaden National Liberation Front, Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement and Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement.

However, responsibility for individual attacks, including those reportedly targeting Debre Zeit, remains difficult to establish independently.

The emergence of a broader armed alliance would add another layer of complexity to an already fragmented conflict.

Why the drone attacks matter

Drones have become an increasingly important part of modern warfare, including in Ethiopia.

The Ethiopian government has used armed drones during military operations, allowing it to strike targets at considerable distances.

The possibility that armed opposition groups are developing or acquiring similar capabilities presents a different challenge.

A drone does not necessarily need to destroy an airbase to disrupt military operations.

Even limited damage, or the threat of repeated attacks, could force aircraft to be moved, restrict flights or lead authorities to introduce additional security measures.

Airports and military airfields are particularly sensitive because they can serve several purposes at once.

They can be used for military operations, transport, surveillance and logistics, while some also handle civilian and humanitarian flights.

Harar Meda and the capital

The reported attack on Harar Meda is particularly significant because of the base’s proximity to Addis Ababa.

Debre Zeit is home to important Ethiopian military facilities and is considerably closer to the capital than many of the country’s traditional conflict zones.

Opposition-linked sources have also claimed that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was at the facility during one of the reported attacks.

That claim has not been independently verified.

There have also been reports from Ethiopian exile media organisations of casualties involving Ethiopian and UAE nationals.

Those reports, too, remain unverified.

The Critical Threats Project has reported that strikes on 27 September targeted Harar Meda/Debre Zeit and that airport operations were temporarily disrupted. It also reported claims of casualties and possible damage to aircraft and other aviation assets.

The precise scale of the damage remains unclear.

The threat from small drones

The growing use of drones presents a particular problem for military planners.

Small unmanned aircraft can be relatively inexpensive, difficult to detect and capable of reaching targets that were previously considered outside the immediate battlefield.

Protecting large military installations from such attacks can require a combination of surveillance, electronic countermeasures and short-range air-defence systems.

It may also require changes to how aircraft, ammunition and other valuable military equipment are stored and dispersed.

For a country with several strategically important facilities spread across a large territory, protecting every potential target presents a considerable challenge.

A risk to civilians

The consequences of the expanding conflict are not limited to military installations.

Many Ethiopian airports serve both military and civilian purposes. Any prolonged disruption could affect commercial flights, humanitarian operations and the movement of civilians.

This is particularly important in regions where roads are already difficult or unsafe to use.

Ethiopia continues to grapple with the consequences of the 2020–2022 war in Tigray, which caused significant loss of life, displaced millions of people, and generated substantial humanitarian needs. In regions such as Amhara, Oromia, and Afar, as well as in other parts of the country, ongoing fighting between opposition groups and government forces has further exacerbated insecurity and humanitarian challenges. In Amhara, the number of internally displaced people (IDPs) remains in the millions, placing considerable pressure on already overstretched humanitarian services and host communities across the region.

Renewed fighting risks creating further displacement and making it harder for humanitarian organisations to reach vulnerable communities.

International organisations have repeatedly called on all parties to protect civilians and comply with international humanitarian law.

Human Rights Watch has previously raised concerns about airstrikes in Tigray and stressed the obligation of parties to armed conflicts to distinguish between military targets and civilians.

The regional picture

Ethiopia’s security problems also have implications beyond its borders.

The country shares borders with Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Djibouti and Somalia.

Sudan is already experiencing a major conflict, while relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have remained a source of regional concern.

A prolonged conflict inside Ethiopia could increase refugee movements, disrupt trade and create additional opportunities for armed groups to operate across borders.

The involvement of multiple armed organisations and foreign powers also makes a comprehensive political settlement more difficult. The UAE is considered one of the main financiers of the government, while other countries, including Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia and Egypt, are expected to take opposing positions. Abiy Ahmed has not maintained good relations with his people and neighbouring countries. He has neither permanent allies nor a consistent foreign policy, and is widely perceived as acting as a proxy for the UAE.

An agreement between the federal government and one armed group would not necessarily end fighting in other parts of the country.

A changing battlefield

The reported attacks on Ethiopian military and aviation facilities point to a potentially important change in the nature of the conflict.

For much of the past decade, Ethiopia’s wars have been fought primarily around towns, rural areas and defined regional front lines.

Drones are changing that geography.

Targets hundreds of kilometres from conventional battlefields can potentially be reached without large numbers of troops crossing the front line.

That could make the conflict more difficult to contain and increase the pressure on the government to protect critical infrastructure.

But the military significance of the reported attacks remains difficult to assess until more information about the targets, damage and perpetrators becomes available.

For civilians, the concern is more immediate.

If airports, transport links and other infrastructure increasingly become part of the conflict, the effects could be felt far beyond the areas where fighting is taking place.

The central question for the Ethiopian government is whether the spread of drone warfare can be contained, or whether a conflict already spanning several regions will increasingly threaten its core strategic infrastructure and defence establishments. The bold assertions once made by Prime Minister Abiy—“You wouldn’t beat us even if you fought for a thousand years!”—and by Ethiopian Air Force Commander Yilma Merdasa—“The sky is ours!”—now belong to the past.